Memorandum

City of Lawrence

Planning and Development Services

TO:	David L. Corliss, City Manager
FROM:	Amy Miller, Long-Range Planner David Guntert, GIS Planner
CC:	Scott McCullough, Planning & Development Services Director
Date:	November 14, 2012
RE:	Census 2010 Analysis and the Census Count Question Resolution Program.

Overview:

The U.S. Census Bureau is mandated by the Constitution to count every resident in the Unites States through the decennial census program that takes place every ten years. The count took place during Spring 2010 and the majority of the data has been released. This memo is a follow-up to the memo that staff did in December 2011 that included an initial analysis of the data. This memo serves as a status update and recommends that the City submit a challenge to refute the 2010 Decennial Census Count for the City of Lawrence by authorizing the mayor to sign the accompanying letter.

The challenge is based on the number of housing units (living quarters) and staff believes that the housing unit count from the Decennial Census is not accurate. If the housing unit count is determined to be inaccurate by the Census Bureau as well, then the housing unit count and the population figure for the 2010 Decennial Census will be revised. In total, staff is submitting a challenge that covers 10 blocks, with a gain of 593 housing units. If the challenge is successful, that will bring our 2010 housing unit count to 38,095 and it is anticipated to result in an approximate population figure around 90,000 people for 2010. The Census Bureau will compute the population figure based on a formula, and issue a final number if the challenge is successful.

Staff will also investigate the potential for challenging the Douglas County 2010 Decennial Census figures and discuss this with Board of County Commissioners after the work is complete on the City of Lawrence challenge. If the City of Lawrence figures are adjusted, then the Douglas County numbers should also be adjusted so that the shares of county population between all incorporated and unincorporated areas remain the same.

Analysis of Census 2010 Data:

The Census Bureau releases their own population estimates every year based on a housing unit formula, but acknowledges that ultimately the community has the best available data, and therefore provides a way for the cities and counties to challenge annual population estimates using building permit data. The City successfully challenged the Census Bureau’s population estimates in 2005 and 2006, as reflected in the table above. It is important to note that the 2009 estimate released by the Census Bureau was 92,048 people, which was higher than the city’s own estimate and much higher than the recently released 2010 Decennial Census figure of 87,643 people. Also important, the 2010 Decennial Census figure of 87,643 people lies between both the Census Estimate and the City Estimate from between 2004 and 2005. In addition, the 2010 population count recently released from the American Community Survey, a program from the Census Bureau that releases data annually, puts the Lawrence population at 92,718.

	Housing Units	Population
2010 Decennial Census	37,502	87,643
2010 Staff Estimate	38,884	92,727
2010 Census American Community Survey	38,667	92,718
2012 CQR Challenge Figures	38,095	Approx. 90,000

Census Count Question Resolution Program

The Census Bureau does have a process by which the Decennial Census population and housing unit figures may be appealed, called Count Question Resolution. The appeal process is based on housing units and involves submitting a list of every housing unit in the City in order to determine if the correct number of housing units was reflected in the 2010 Decennial Census count.

Staff analyzed data from the Utilities Department and Douglas County Appraisers Office in order to verify that housing units were correctly identified, in some cases checking against building permit data. Staff then isolated census blocks that showed a decline in the number of housing units reported in the 2010 Decennial Census compared with appraiser, utility billing and building permit data.

In the interest of maximizing staff time, staff selected only those blocks where the housing unit discrepancy was significant (generally over 10 housing units difference) and has prepared a challenge based on those blocks. In total, staff is submitting a challenge that covers 10 blocks, with a gain of 593 housing units. Staff will submit the challenge in the Census Bureau prescribed format of a table, with corresponding location map.

At this time, staff is unsure of the corresponding population gain associated with the submission of this challenge as that will be officially determined by the Census Bureau based on the housing unit gain, if the challenge is successful. Staff can approximate population to be around 90,000 people as a result of a successful challenge adding the 593 housing units to the decennial census figure.

Action:

Direct staff to proceed with Census Count Question Resolution and Authorize Mayor to execute documents as appropriate.