CHAPTER TWO - AVIATION DEMAND FORECASTS

2.1 INTRODUCTION

Forecasts of aviation activity are the basis for determining airport facility requirements. These requirements are in turn used to plan future airport development such as tiedowns and apron area, hangar spaces, runway and taxiway lengths and pavement strength.

This chapter presents forecast of aviation demand at Lawrence Municipal Airport through the year 2020. Major subjects discussed in this chapter are: (1) historical and forecast population and economy of the region; (2)  historical and forecast general aviation traffic; and (3) forecast summary.

2.2     POPULATION AND ECONOMY OF THE LAWRENCE  REGION

Aviation demand at an airport is a function of the economic and demographic characteristics of the area served by the airport. Such an area is commonly referred to as the “airport service area”. An understanding of the present and likely future economy and population of the air service area is essential to the development of aviation demand forecasts.

Air Service Area

The community and surrounding areas served by an airport facility is referred to as an "airport service area". The size of a service area is normally determined by an airport's proximity to its users, its location in relation to physical boundaries such as mountains, forests and streams, by the quality of ground access to the facility and by its proximity to other airports which provide similar facilities and services, such as commercial service, comparable airfield capabilities, aircraft storage, security, fuel and maintenance.

The service area for the Lawrence Municipal Airport includes all of Douglas County and portions of Jefferson, Johnson, Leavenworth, Franklin, Miami and Shawnee counties in Kansas. It is estimated that although the service area line is closer to other airports, (see Table 2-1) Lawrence offers certain services, facilities or convenience appealing to potential users from surrounding counties.  Most of the communities within these counties have excellent access to Lawrence by way of Interstate 70 and U.S. Highway 24/40/59. (See Figure 2.1 "Airport Service Area" map).

Area Public-Use Airports

Table 2-1 Area Public-Use Airport Facilities
Airport Name Distance/Direction	Runway Characteristics	Airport Services	To/From Kansas Raceway by Ground
Philip Ballard Municipal 20 NM W	4-22 3,002’ x 100’ Vis 13-31 5,099’x 150’ ILS 18-36 4,331’x 75’ NPI	Fuel, Major Controlled	56.4 miles 65 minutes
Atchison Amelia Earhart 35 NM NE	16-34 3,000’ x 48’ Vis	Fuel (no jet Fuel), Major, Uncontrolled	50.2 miles 82 minutes
Topeka Forbes Field 21 NM WSW	3-21 7,001’ x 150 NPI 13-31 12,819’ x 150 ILS	Fuel, Major Controlled	61.8 miles 71 minutes
Gardner Municipal 17 NM SE	3-21 3,200’x 60’ Vis 8-26 2,960’ x 36 Vis 17-35 3,240’ x 90’ Vis	Fuel (no jet Fuel) Uncontrolled	32.2 miles 42 minutes
Ottawa Municipal 29 NM S	5-23 2,190’ x 86’ Turf 13-31 1,785’ x 95’ Turf 17-35 4,500’ x 75’ Vis	Fuel (no jet Fuel) Uncontrolled	57.5 miles 64 minutes
Sherman AAF (Joint-use) 27 NM NE	15-33  5,905’ x 100’ NPI	Fuel (no Jet fuel), Major, Uncontrolled	29.2 miles 53 minutes
New Century 20 NM SE	4-22 5,130’ x 100’ Vis 17-35 7,339’ x 190’ ILS	Fuel, Major Controlled	29.2 miles 34 minutes
Johnson County Executive 25 NM SE	18-36 4,099’ x 75’ NPI	Fuel, Major Controlled	25.3 miles 37 minutes
Miami County 32 NM SE	3-21 3,400’ x 60’ Vis 15-33 2,700’ x 55’ Turf	Fuel (no jet Fuel) Uncontrolled	48.6 miles 72 minutes
Kansas City Downtown 30 NM E	1-19 7,000 ‘ x 150’ ILS 3-21 5,052’ x 150’ ILS	Fuel, Major Controlled	9.9 miles 17 minutes
Kansas City International 30 NM NE	1L-19R 10,801’ x 150’ ILS 1R-19L 9,500’ x 150’ ILS 9-27 9,500’ x 150’ ILS	Fuel, Major Controlled	19.9 miles 26 minutes
Vis =No approach, visual only NPI = Non Precision Approach ILS = Precision Approach Lawrence Airport is 20 miles and 26 minutes from Raceway

Lawrence Airport has many positive facilities and can be more competitive with some improvements.  The Lawrence airport compares favorably with other area airports with better services more convenience, better appeal to existing and potential users, and better access to the ground transportation system and no air traffic control tower. With the Kansas University business, Lawrence Airport makes better sense then to have to commute from Topeka or Kansas City. The KU Basketball team currently has to travel to Topeka due to the Regional Jets they use which needs more runway length and strength. Phase I devlopment will take care of this problem.

At the NBAA Trade Show in October 2000, Lawrence Aviation Advisory Board Chair Rick Bryant met with NASCAR flight officials regarding race track activities in 2001 for Kansas City. NASCAR officials acknowledged LWC as a viable operational site but were enthusiastic about the Federal Funding appropriations for runway extension, runway strengthening and apron expansion that would make Lawrence even more attract as a destination for race events. Since that conversation, NASCAR flight officials and race teams have phoned the FBO several times for updates on the airport projects. One race team has already made reservations to bring multiple jets to LWC for the inaugural NASCAR race in September 2001.

Population Trends

The population of Douglas County was 81,798 in 1990 and is now 101,459 in 2000, which figures out to a 24.0 percent increase for the ten-year period or 2.4 percent annually. The census data forecasts show the population is expected to continue to increase 39.2 percent over the next 20 years or nearly 4 percent per year. The table below shows forecasts for other counties in the airport service area which shows a growth of 15.0 percent over the past 20 years or 1.5 percent annually and projected growth of 26 percent over the next 20 years or 1.3 percent annually.

TABLE 2-2 POPULATION ESTIMATES OF SERVICE AREA COUNTIES
COUNTY	1990	2000	2010	2020
Douglas	81,798	101,459	121,377	141,294
Johnson	355,021	433,852	509,641	585,429
Leavenworth	64,393	73,749	83,061	92,373
Jefferson	15,960	18,058	20,213	22,368
Shawnee	160,976	178,528	195,873	213,218
Franklin	21,994	24,933	27,968	31,003
Miami	23,466	28,190	32,928	37,665
TOTALS	723,608	858,769	991,061	1,123,350
Source: Kansas Water Office, 1999

Figure 2.1 Airport Service Area

No Scale

2.3     AVIATION FORECASTS

The forecasts of aviation demand establish the nature and magnitude of aeronautical activity and the associated need for airport development for the ensuing 20-year planning period. History has repeatedly demonstrated that actual airport utilization will vary significantly, dependent upon the level of service provided the public and regional economic conditions which exist at any given moment. Due to the highly elastic nature of the aviation industry, most aviation forecasts tend to follow trends in growth rather than fluctuations in any given year.

The forecasts are provided in increments of five, ten and twenty years over the 20-year planning period. Year 2000 is the base forecast year, while 2020 is the final forecast year.

The basic aeronautical activity forecasts necessary to determine airport requirements and described herein include:

1.         Based Aircraft

2. Based Aircraft by Type

3. General Aviation Operations

4. General Aviation Operations by Type

5. Operations Mix

6. Peak Period Operations

7.         Instrument Operations

2.4     BASED AIRCRAFT

Currently, the based aircraft fleet at Lawrence consists of 55 airplanes. However, the airport currently has no available hangar space but does have a waiting list. If new hangars are constructed, it is estimated that this number would increase by 10 to 15. This growth in based aircraft can be attributed to the same growth in service area population and a robust regional economy.

Historical data for based aircraft at Lawrence is presented in Table 2-3. Figures from the FAA’s 5010 reports are shown.

TABLE 2-3 HISTORICAL BASED AIRCRAFT
YEAR	FAA’s 5010  Report
1990	52
1993	42
1995	50
1998	56
1999	53

After reviewing the historical trends and previously published forecasts, a growth rate of two percent was selected to determine the based aircraft study figures added to the artificial cap caused by lack of hangar space. This moderate growth rate was selected to account for the broad changes occurring in the general aviation industry. Based aircraft forecast figures are presented in Table 2-4. Based aircraft are forecast to increase from 55 in 2000 to 92 by the year 2020.

TABLE 2-4 FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT
YEAR	AIRCRAFT
2000	55
2005	71
2010	79
2020	92
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000.

Congruous with the national trend towards larger, more sophisticated aircraft, the long-term (2020) mix forecast represents a divergence of the existing mix towards the national mix.

Table 2-5 presents this divergence of the existing mix towards the national mix.

TABLE 2-5 FORECAST BASED AIRCRAFT BY TYPE
YEAR	SINGLE ENGINE	MULTI- PISTON	MULTI- TURBINE	BUSINESS JET	ROTOR	TOTAL
2000	50	1	1	3	0	55
2005	62	2	2	4	1	71
2010	65	3	3	6	2	79
2020	71	4	4	10	3	92
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000.

2.5     GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS

An aircraft operation is defined as a takeoff or a landing. A touch-and-go (takeoff and landing) is counted as two operations. Historical data and previously published forecasts were evaluated in developing the study forecast figures. The historical data and previously published forecasts are presented in Table 2-6.

				TABLE 2-6 GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONAL TRENDS
YEAR		FAA5010 Reports
	1990		29,400
	1993		23,100
	1995		24,600
	1998		27,000
	1999		31,350

Contrary to the fact that general aviation growth has leveled off and small, single-engine aircraft production and sales have slowed, it is anticipated that nonscheduled GA operations will increase. It is believed that existing aircraft utilization will rise as a result of aircraft owners’ efforts to maintain and increase levels of cost effective flight. Hence, nonscheduled operations should rise also.

Historically, the number of general aviation operations at Lawrence has averaged 570 annual operations per based aircraft, for the ten-year-period 1990 - 2000. This forecast will use 550 operations per based aircraft for the projections.

The results of the study generated forecast are presented in Table 2-7. The number of general aviation operations is expected to increase from 31,350 in 2000 to 50,600 by the year 2020. It should be noted that air charter and military operations have been included in general aviation (nonscheduled) operations.

TABLE 2-7 FORECAST GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS
YEAR	GA OPERATIONS
2000	31,350
2005	39,000
2010	43,450
2020	50,600
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000. Includes Air Taxi and Military Operations

2.6     GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS BY TYPE

Although production and sales of single-engine aircraft have shown "signs of life" since 1989, the general trend underway in the general aviation fleet is towards a heavier and more sophisticated aircraft fleet. It is anticipated that during the study period this trend will continue and the percentage of fleet operations accomplished by piston aircraft will decrease while the percentage of operations by multi-turbine, business jet and rotor aircraft will increase. Since the forecast in FAA Aviation Forecasts, Fiscal Years 1999-2010 is only presented for hours flown and not aircraft operations, a direct application of the figures given could not be utilized. However, a correlation of the percentages could be computed and used.

A breakdown of the forecast of general aviation operations by aircraft type is presented in Table 2-8.

TABLE 2-8 GENERAL AVIATION OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT TYPE
YEAR	SINGLE ENGINE	MULTI PISTON	MULTI TURBINE	BUSINESS JET	ROTOR	TOTAL
2000	17,750	3,150	5,650	4,700	100	31,350
2005	22,050	3,900	7,000	5,850	200	39,000
2010	24,550	4,300	7,800	6,500	300	43,450
2020	28,450	5,050	9,100	7,600	400	50,600
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000.

2.7     OPERATIONS BY AIRCRAFT MIX

The operational aircraft mix is classified into two broad types of operations:  local or itinerant. A local operation is defined as a takeoff or landing performed by an aircraft that:

1.         operates in the local traffic pattern or within sight of the airport; or

2.         is known to be departing for or arriving from flights in local practice areas located within a 20 nautical mile radius of the airport; or,

3.         executes simulated instrument approaches or low passes at the airport.

An itinerant operation is defined as all aircraft operations other than local operations, which includes all scheduled service operations.

The operational mix of local/itinerant traffic at all U.S. airports with FAA air traffic control service is presented in FAA Aviation Forecast, Fiscal Years 1999 - 2010. Although Lawrence does not have a control tower, the current local/itinerant mix is similar to the national average local/itinerant mix. This is based on airport records compiled by staff at the facility. Historically, over the past ten years (1990 - 2000), traffic at Lawrence has averaged 60 percent local and 40 percent itinerant. Future traffic is assumed to follow national trends. A summary of the forecast mix is presented in Table 2-9.

TABLE 2-9 FORECAST OPERATIONS MIX
YEAR	TOTAL OPERATIONS	LOCAL		ITINERANT
		OPERATIONS	PERCENT	OPERATIONS	PERCENT
2000	31,350	18,810	60%	12,540	40%
2005	39,000	22,230	57%	16,770	43%
2010	43,450	24,330	56%	19,120	44%
2020	50,600	27,830	55%	22,770	45%
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000. Includes All Operations

2.8     PEAK PERIOD OPERATIONS

Peak day is defined as the average number of operations per day during the most active month. In the FAA Central Region and at Lawrence, the most active month normally accounts for approximately 10 percent of the total annual operations. Lastly, approximately 15 percent of the peak day operations occur during the peak hour. Total peak period operations, which include all general aviation operations, are presented in Table 2-10.

TABLE 2-10 PEAK PERIOD FORECAST – TOTAL OPERATIONS
YEAR	TOTAL OPERATIONS	PEAK MONTH	PEAK  DAY	PEAK HOUR
2000	31,350	3,135	100	15
2005	39,000	3,900	120	18
2010	43,450	4,345	130	20
2020	50,600	5,060	160	24
Source: ADG, Inc. 2000.

2.9     INSTRUMENT OPERATIONS

Typically, annual instrument operations at a general aviation airport include those operations conducted by air taxi, military, and a portion of the general aviation traffic. For this study analysis, it was assumed that 25 percent of the general aviation itinerant operations are conducted under an IFR flight plan. Therefore, the number of annual instrument operations is projected to increase from 3,135 in 2000 to 5,700 in 2020.